Focused Investing Perspectives #49

Common Morgansers, stopping over on their way north.

There was a lot to complain about this week. The markets went up too much.

When the market offers great opportunities, taking them is not actually better than sex. But seeing them vanish while you are in the act has some similarity to coitus interruptus.

That happened on Wednesday afternoon to a lot of my subscribers, and to me. We had been very busy in my chat all morning assessing potential partners and starting relationships with some of them.

Opportunities abounded and more were coming. And none of us are monogamous, in the relevant context anyway. We were seeking more partners in profit. But we needed another solid down day to make those possibilities really compelling.

Then the US President abruptly changed policy, and the markets responded by rocketing upward. This interrupted all our hopes and plans.

One of those subscribers posted:

I'm very upset. If the market is going to crash it should stay crashed until I'm done my swaps. Very rude.

Yesterday I complained to a friend that I was up so much on the day that I had no way to make money. He was not sympathetic. Such is the lot of a value investor.

Still, it would seem to me that the odds of all this presidential policy triggering a real Depression have gone down this week. And I can be happy about that.

Bear Market or Not?

Authors who like exaggerated hyperbole have called recent events a bear market. But to my eyes, key indices have failed to breach the threshold of a 20% drop. And they came close only during one day.

At the moment it appears that the markets will muddle along. But this president seems prone to producing turmoil, doesn’t he?

Turmoil is not good for business or markets, both of which need stable expectations of the future. But turmoil can provide opportunities…

I had raised some cash and established some limit orders at levels where I would like to own certain things. I’m not unwinding them yet.

Focused Investing News

My piece on Federal Realty (FRT) came out and got wide readership:

I’ve also spent more time on SL Green (SLG), and should have an article out next week. That one is tough to understand, but clearly is no Go-Fishing stock.

Next will be a bit of a break from the 10-Ks to put out an overdue piece with the REIT growth theory clearly laid out. I also am doing some thinking about different perspectives on discount rates, and will end up publishing something about that.

But if the market turmoil continues, I’m likely to publish something else focused on new opportunities that emerge.

Personal News:

Plenty of people are still without power here in Northern Michigan, in the wake of the Great Ice Storm of 2025. The last one that might have been as bad was in 1922.

Some friends of mine just got power back in the last couple of days. One other one is looking at May. There are areas where they have to completely rebuild the local grid.

My many down branches got cleaned up by a local contractor who shut down his current project in order to help the community. This is typical for Northern Michigan, and in fact for much of America and especially the rural places. It is also a dynamic about which our president has no clue.

This is a reminder that America is a better place than our politicians deserve.

Member News

Material since February 28 has included the following.

This past week:

• A perspectives article, to all subscribers

• A deep dive on Federal Realty Trust with no paywall.

• Two Trade Alerts

The previous week:

• A perspectives article, to all subscribers

• A monthly update for March

• A deep dive on EPR Properties, with an extensive free preview

• Three Trade Alerts

Two weeks ago:

• A perspectives article, to all subscribers.

• A deep look at Regency Centers, to paid subscribers with an extensive free preview.

• A Brief Note on Vicinity Centres, to all subscribers.

March 15-22:

• A perspectives article, to all subscribers.

• A reconsideration of Armada Hoffler after their dividend cut, to all subscribers.

• A Trade Alert to paid subscribers.

Paid members also have access to the Focused Investing Chat.

A note on my approach to restricting access: Anything providing details of my trades and portfolio is restricted to paid subscribers, as is anything I consider to be immediately actionable. Most articles with information it seems members may act on usually have a preview section followed by a paid section where the real meat is.

The Google Sheets (for annual members):

• The main attraction on the Google sheet is full disclosure of my live, real-time portfolio. If you are an annual paid member and do not have access, please contact me.

• There are in addition a REIT assessment sheet and a Midstreams assessment sheet, each a tab. And if you scroll down on the portfolio tab, you can see some tickers I track and some playing with possible portfolios.

Also:

• Paid members can also post items of interest on the Focused Investing Chat, which I do often. Check it out and post your own items, please. Comments and questions are always welcome. There sure was lots of activity there last week.

• There is a search function on the Focused Investing home page, to help look for past articles.

• It can be challenging to search the chat (for paid members only) or to find past articles on mobile devices. To do so, you have to get into the chat so my picture is on the top left, and then punch my nose with your finger (ouch?). You will see a display with a search emoji and a link to the home page where you can search.

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