It was eye-watering. Set some records I believe. I missed it as I was enjoying some unusually terrific Mississippi weather. Y'all gonna laugh at me and call me a CultoTrumpist-which I sorta am, but hear me out. I used to teach a negotiating class at Schlumberger-believe it or not newly minted engineers are horrible at negotiating. Trump's moves-while a little over the top-Canada 51st state 🤣 are right out of the outline for the course. 1. Insult, shock, dismay, and stupefy your opponent with your first offer. Rattle them to the core thinking you've lost your mind. Trump-check. 2. Pivot with new information-people start reaching out to see if they can negotiate a deal. The Ten year note pivot was a signal that it was time to pivot-pause and incent early offerers with the most favorable deals and consolidate your friends-Goal alignment, into a bloc-freezing out China-which had been the goal all along. None of what's happened was particularly hard to predict and set up a plan to mitigate. Hassett and Bessent are sharp cookies. Navarro perhaps not. Anyway, that's my take. It's an ambitious gambit to be sure, but one if it plays out will make us stronger and able to wait out China. Cheers
On further reflection, I have more to say here, in two respects. First, after the behavior we have seen to date, any company thinking about expanding is hesitating. They are wondering "what is this lunatic going to do next that could quench my profits?" Behavior that might possibly make sense in some spheres of activity such as real estate is not necessarily acceptable in presidential administrations. And as to that, I personally would decline to engage in any transaction with anyone who behaved that way. I believe in win-win, achieved by well-meaning communication.
Second, as is covered often and at length in the posts by Stefan Korshak, the diplomatic behavior of this administration is outright incompetent. Trump is appointing golfing buddies to do jobs for which experience and training as a diplomat is needed. And he has been being played for months by both the Kremlin and Ukraine. (https://stefankorshak.substack.com)
I suspect there will be more market mayhem coming. 75 countries (reportedly) have reached out to negotiate. How many will get done during this three month reprieve? Will the reprieve be extended? Not even Trump knows. The recent mayhem was a message of sorts. Very nice stock market you've got there, it would be a shame if something happened to it. So 75 countries are at the table, but the negotiations are not uniform. China is going to get choked. The US can't possibly replace all that manufacturing on its own, so sign a deal and we'll give you a piece of that action. Take that Belt and Road. Other things are more subtle. You want a deal South Korea? How about you build up your military so we don't have to have 30,000 troops in your country defending your border? Hey Japan, you've got 55,000... Germany... Hey Mexico, we need to have a serious chat about your cartels. Canada? We have no idea what he really wants from Canada and we won't find out until our election is over. This Canadian however is selling Canadian stocks to buy US stocks. A new government could go in almost any direction and whatever Trump actually wants, I'm betting it will hurt.
How will it all turn out? I recall the famous quote from General Sherman. No battle plan survives contact with the enemy. Buckle up folks. There's more mayhem coming, for three months if not longer, but its one country at a time mayhem. The opportunities will be more subtle and they will be short lived. My guess anyway. The usual caveats about this not being investing advice, do your own research, blah blah blah.
It was eye-watering. Set some records I believe. I missed it as I was enjoying some unusually terrific Mississippi weather. Y'all gonna laugh at me and call me a CultoTrumpist-which I sorta am, but hear me out. I used to teach a negotiating class at Schlumberger-believe it or not newly minted engineers are horrible at negotiating. Trump's moves-while a little over the top-Canada 51st state 🤣 are right out of the outline for the course. 1. Insult, shock, dismay, and stupefy your opponent with your first offer. Rattle them to the core thinking you've lost your mind. Trump-check. 2. Pivot with new information-people start reaching out to see if they can negotiate a deal. The Ten year note pivot was a signal that it was time to pivot-pause and incent early offerers with the most favorable deals and consolidate your friends-Goal alignment, into a bloc-freezing out China-which had been the goal all along. None of what's happened was particularly hard to predict and set up a plan to mitigate. Hassett and Bessent are sharp cookies. Navarro perhaps not. Anyway, that's my take. It's an ambitious gambit to be sure, but one if it plays out will make us stronger and able to wait out China. Cheers
Thanks for the comment, Dave. I would prefer to see competence, and on many levels my view is that we are not.
On further reflection, I have more to say here, in two respects. First, after the behavior we have seen to date, any company thinking about expanding is hesitating. They are wondering "what is this lunatic going to do next that could quench my profits?" Behavior that might possibly make sense in some spheres of activity such as real estate is not necessarily acceptable in presidential administrations. And as to that, I personally would decline to engage in any transaction with anyone who behaved that way. I believe in win-win, achieved by well-meaning communication.
Second, as is covered often and at length in the posts by Stefan Korshak, the diplomatic behavior of this administration is outright incompetent. Trump is appointing golfing buddies to do jobs for which experience and training as a diplomat is needed. And he has been being played for months by both the Kremlin and Ukraine. (https://stefankorshak.substack.com)
There is more but that is enough.
Cheers Paul.
I suspect there will be more market mayhem coming. 75 countries (reportedly) have reached out to negotiate. How many will get done during this three month reprieve? Will the reprieve be extended? Not even Trump knows. The recent mayhem was a message of sorts. Very nice stock market you've got there, it would be a shame if something happened to it. So 75 countries are at the table, but the negotiations are not uniform. China is going to get choked. The US can't possibly replace all that manufacturing on its own, so sign a deal and we'll give you a piece of that action. Take that Belt and Road. Other things are more subtle. You want a deal South Korea? How about you build up your military so we don't have to have 30,000 troops in your country defending your border? Hey Japan, you've got 55,000... Germany... Hey Mexico, we need to have a serious chat about your cartels. Canada? We have no idea what he really wants from Canada and we won't find out until our election is over. This Canadian however is selling Canadian stocks to buy US stocks. A new government could go in almost any direction and whatever Trump actually wants, I'm betting it will hurt.
How will it all turn out? I recall the famous quote from General Sherman. No battle plan survives contact with the enemy. Buckle up folks. There's more mayhem coming, for three months if not longer, but its one country at a time mayhem. The opportunities will be more subtle and they will be short lived. My guess anyway. The usual caveats about this not being investing advice, do your own research, blah blah blah.
What you suggest would not surprise me.