Generic analysts, and some apparent REIT experts, often make blanket statements about REITs that do not withstand scrutiny. Let's look at some real examples.
Good discussion, Paul. I agree there is a churn aspect to REIT coverage and some other sectors on SA. Writers with huge followings can make $1,000's per article from premium subs. 15K premium views = about $1,000 in variable earnings. High Yield tickers like SPG with almost 100K followers is sure to get that many from a writer with 40-50K followers. SPG is still getting Strong buy articles this month after doubling since 2022-when I entered at $87ish. The price target at 18X TTM AFFO is $214??? Not adding at current levels, but I hold SPG in several accounts and intend to stay long for income. I agree EPR is undervalued, but have not done independent analysis to come to that opinion. I entered EPR at $32 and have loved the monthly payouts. I don't know if I will ever close out this position as I bought mainly for income. Unless the story changes dramatically-not something I expect. One thing I have learned in 7 years of writing and investing-only buy when there is blood in the streets. Keep em coming. I always learn from your stuff. Cheers, Dave
Good points, Dave. And good work on those investments. Even at the levels you mention, it is really hard to make decent $/hr from writing on SA as you know. Like you I think, my writing is a supplement to my own investing, which is the main thing from which I benefit.
Great article Paul, debunks investing myths. With 4-5 years of REIT experience, I am not inclined to buy many individual REITs at this point. Curious (as you mention) how SA REIT hawkers just keep extolling their virtues regardless of the state of the market. What I WOULD do is put money into REITs in a serious market meltdown, although I'd have to wait for recovery to reap the rewards.
Agreed. The REIT cheerleaders on SA can justify reits going up no matter the environment. Rates going up, no problem reits get higher rent and navs rise, rates go down, reits are great. FFO mult has been 18x but now only 12x...etc etc. I m happy I punted the vast majority of my reits a month or two ago.
Exactly, MZ. I'm good with the "Go-Fishing" positions for dividends, but they don't seem to yield enough for you. And I do like what I am doing for possible upside. But mainly I'm waiting for that market meltdown.
Thanks for the article Paul. Those graphs are eye opening.
I didn't know ARE was so inefficient with such a high stock issuance. Given that past inefficieny, what do you see different for their future potential? Or are you keeping it for eventual re-pricing?
Well that inefficiency just implies that you get bigger than you would have to for about the same gains with more emphasis on internal growth. So you end up with the challenges of large size. It is not typically an enormous hindrance. But in the end it will slow down growth. I still see lots of upside in ARE, and so decent yield now. But not long-term.
Good discussion, Paul. I agree there is a churn aspect to REIT coverage and some other sectors on SA. Writers with huge followings can make $1,000's per article from premium subs. 15K premium views = about $1,000 in variable earnings. High Yield tickers like SPG with almost 100K followers is sure to get that many from a writer with 40-50K followers. SPG is still getting Strong buy articles this month after doubling since 2022-when I entered at $87ish. The price target at 18X TTM AFFO is $214??? Not adding at current levels, but I hold SPG in several accounts and intend to stay long for income. I agree EPR is undervalued, but have not done independent analysis to come to that opinion. I entered EPR at $32 and have loved the monthly payouts. I don't know if I will ever close out this position as I bought mainly for income. Unless the story changes dramatically-not something I expect. One thing I have learned in 7 years of writing and investing-only buy when there is blood in the streets. Keep em coming. I always learn from your stuff. Cheers, Dave
Good points, Dave. And good work on those investments. Even at the levels you mention, it is really hard to make decent $/hr from writing on SA as you know. Like you I think, my writing is a supplement to my own investing, which is the main thing from which I benefit.
Great article Paul, debunks investing myths. With 4-5 years of REIT experience, I am not inclined to buy many individual REITs at this point. Curious (as you mention) how SA REIT hawkers just keep extolling their virtues regardless of the state of the market. What I WOULD do is put money into REITs in a serious market meltdown, although I'd have to wait for recovery to reap the rewards.
Agreed. The REIT cheerleaders on SA can justify reits going up no matter the environment. Rates going up, no problem reits get higher rent and navs rise, rates go down, reits are great. FFO mult has been 18x but now only 12x...etc etc. I m happy I punted the vast majority of my reits a month or two ago.
Thanks for Commenting.
For the Iove & support you've shown me I'll introduce you to a huge & massive ɨn⩔៩នƬ៣៩nƬ
Write with Taylor Nelson
₩Ħ₳₮$₳₱₱: ±𝟭 (𝟱𝟴𝟱)𝟲𝟮𝟯-𝟬𝟭𝟯𝟯
Tell him I sent u. It's very prof!table
Indeed, if your goal is upside there are not a lot of good options right now IMO
Exactly, MZ. I'm good with the "Go-Fishing" positions for dividends, but they don't seem to yield enough for you. And I do like what I am doing for possible upside. But mainly I'm waiting for that market meltdown.
Don't forget to let us know.
Duh. I will.
Thanks for the article Paul. Those graphs are eye opening.
I didn't know ARE was so inefficient with such a high stock issuance. Given that past inefficieny, what do you see different for their future potential? Or are you keeping it for eventual re-pricing?
Thanks for Commenting.
For the Iove & support you've shown me I'll introduce you to a huge & massive ɨn⩔៩នƬ៣៩nƬ
Write with Taylor Nelson
₩Ħ₳₮$₳₱₱: ±𝟭 (𝟱𝟴𝟱)𝟲𝟮𝟯-𝟬𝟭𝟯𝟯
Tell him I sent u. It's very prof!table
Same here. I realized it for sure with O since they have been so acquisition focused but not with ARE.
Well that inefficiency just implies that you get bigger than you would have to for about the same gains with more emphasis on internal growth. So you end up with the challenges of large size. It is not typically an enormous hindrance. But in the end it will slow down growth. I still see lots of upside in ARE, and so decent yield now. But not long-term.