Paul, thanks for your take on AHH. Started buying after their secondary offering last year and have been adding since. Currently represents 1% holding, willing to go higher but would like to see some progress on their debt reduction and/or earnings improvement before getting much larger. I am hopeful that the recently completed projects (Harbor Point/T.Rowe Price) will start showing improvement in their NOI by Q1 or Q2. This is my first comment on Substack. I look forward to your future updates. Thanks again.
Thanks, J, for weighing in here. I do think and hope that we will see NOI improvements. Debt reduction seems the uncertainty to me. If they do it effectively, this could be a lucrative holding.
Unfortunately I have a mid sized position in AHH. I also have a position in ARE which I'm down on even more than I am on AHH. During Covid crash I got pretty good at figuring out which of my positions were down more on hysteria than substance. I sold stuff down 40% to buy stuff down 80%. Worked out very well. There were lots of opportunities that were very obvious. This is closer to being a finesse move. If I held no ARE, it would be fairly simple. But my ARE position is currently 2.4% of my portfolio. I just checked yours, and its 5% which is where I would be if I made the swap. But even if I was comfortable with 5%, I'd be taking a hit to my dividend revenue too. Decisions Decision.
Yeah, I hold 43 positions to your (24?). About 6 of my 43 are purely speculative. I've had a couple of 10 baggers with gold mines hitting production and tech start ups, so I always have a few of those. Lose it all or win big. I also hold a tiny position in IVQ which I hold onto only for the constant reminder of what happens when debt gets too high.
I thought there were some projects in the works and that 2025 was the bottom for revenues and in 2026 there is expected to be an increase. Is that the case? If so, what does 2026 start to look like?
Oh yes, NOI and FAD should improve in 2025, and maybe more than their guidance depending how they included Harbor Point. I have numbers in the article based on their guidance.
But even with a further boost that just gets them back to modest FAD/sh growth. This will help the dividend, but will do nothing about the balance sheet. If they want to access the investment-grade bond markets, then they have more work to do. Adds uncertainty.
I appreciate that you keep us as much up-to-date as you can with your process! When you purchased your AHH shares, I chose to purchase a small holding. If you do sell, I'll probably follow suit--though one is never eager to take even a small loss. If you hold and watch, I'll do the same. Decisions, decisions. Thanks, again, for your conscientiousness. and expertise, especially in maths (as the English say).
Paul, thanks for your take on AHH. Started buying after their secondary offering last year and have been adding since. Currently represents 1% holding, willing to go higher but would like to see some progress on their debt reduction and/or earnings improvement before getting much larger. I am hopeful that the recently completed projects (Harbor Point/T.Rowe Price) will start showing improvement in their NOI by Q1 or Q2. This is my first comment on Substack. I look forward to your future updates. Thanks again.
Thanks, J, for weighing in here. I do think and hope that we will see NOI improvements. Debt reduction seems the uncertainty to me. If they do it effectively, this could be a lucrative holding.
Thanks for the extra work on this Paul!
Unfortunately I have a mid sized position in AHH. I also have a position in ARE which I'm down on even more than I am on AHH. During Covid crash I got pretty good at figuring out which of my positions were down more on hysteria than substance. I sold stuff down 40% to buy stuff down 80%. Worked out very well. There were lots of opportunities that were very obvious. This is closer to being a finesse move. If I held no ARE, it would be fairly simple. But my ARE position is currently 2.4% of my portfolio. I just checked yours, and its 5% which is where I would be if I made the swap. But even if I was comfortable with 5%, I'd be taking a hit to my dividend revenue too. Decisions Decision.
Decisions indeed. I have the impression that you hold a lot more total positions than I do. For me, a 5% position is about average.
Yeah, I hold 43 positions to your (24?). About 6 of my 43 are purely speculative. I've had a couple of 10 baggers with gold mines hitting production and tech start ups, so I always have a few of those. Lose it all or win big. I also hold a tiny position in IVQ which I hold onto only for the constant reminder of what happens when debt gets too high.
I thought there were some projects in the works and that 2025 was the bottom for revenues and in 2026 there is expected to be an increase. Is that the case? If so, what does 2026 start to look like?
Oh yes, NOI and FAD should improve in 2025, and maybe more than their guidance depending how they included Harbor Point. I have numbers in the article based on their guidance.
But even with a further boost that just gets them back to modest FAD/sh growth. This will help the dividend, but will do nothing about the balance sheet. If they want to access the investment-grade bond markets, then they have more work to do. Adds uncertainty.
Thanks for the clarification. I have a lot of ground to cover in markets like this so I kind of skim through a lot of stuff and might miss things...
I appreciate that you keep us as much up-to-date as you can with your process! When you purchased your AHH shares, I chose to purchase a small holding. If you do sell, I'll probably follow suit--though one is never eager to take even a small loss. If you hold and watch, I'll do the same. Decisions, decisions. Thanks, again, for your conscientiousness. and expertise, especially in maths (as the English say).
Decisions, decisions indeed.